Why the Bull Market Is Nowhere Near Finished

(Deep Institutional Thesis, November 18, 2025)

The one-hour BTC chart looks catastrophic to retail.

A $126,400 rejection.

Nineteen billion dollars in long liquidations in seven days.

Spot price chopping between $90,000 and $94,000 with the Bitcoin Volatility Index at its highest level since March 2023.

Technical traders are begging for sub-$80,000.

That is noise.

Every structural driver of multi-year price discovery, including liquidity, sovereign flows, institutional accumulation, and regulatory clarity, is not only intact.

It is accelerating.

Below is the updated institutional picture as of this minute.

1. Global Liquidity Supercycle Is Re-Accelerating

Global M2 Expansion

• Global M2 surpassed 102.4 trillion dollars in October.
• Annualized expansion is 6.2 percent, faster than the 2019 to 2021 melt-up.
• United States liquidity bottomed in late Q3 and has risen for five consecutive weeks.

Federal Reserve Positioning

• Quantitative tightening officially ends on December 1. Powell confirmed in private remarks that reinvestments will resume in January 2026.
• The December dot plot is expected to telegraph a 25 basis point cut in Q1 2026.
• Futures now price 100 basis points of cuts through September with rising probability that a new Federal Reserve Chair accelerates the path toward the zero bound.

Treasury Dynamics

• The Treasury General Account drained 181 billion dollars after the shutdown was resolved, which functioned as shadow quantitative easing.
• Reverse repos have fallen below 325 billion dollars, the lowest level since March 2021, which signals that liquidity is being forced back into markets.

Liquidity is the cycle.

Bitcoin is the highest beta beneficiary.

2. The Government Shutdown Created a Fiscal Whiplash of Fresh Liquidity

The forty-three day continuing resolution standoff removed nearly 1.8 trillion dollars of annualized fiscal impulse.

The moment the resolution was signed:

• Ninety-four billion dollars in federal backpay hit payroll systems.
• One hundred twenty-seven billion dollars in delayed federal contracts were released.
• SNAP and child tax credit advancement schedules were reactivated for December.
• Energy rebate distributions under the Inflation Reduction Act begin the first tranche in January.

Historical flow data is consistent.

Seventy percent of direct fiscal transfers flow into risk assets within ninety days.

We are thirty days away from that wave of capital, not past it.

3. Institutional Accumulation Is Entering a Violent Phase

This is not retail panic.

This is structured accumulation.

ETF and Sovereign Flows

• BlackRock IBIT absorbed 61.3 billion dollars this year, which equals approximately 630,000 BTC at an average cost basis of 97,000 dollars.
• Fidelity, Ark, and Franklin Templeton added a combined 163,000 BTC this quarter.
• Sovereign buyers stepped in aggressively during the October liquidation:
• Norway accumulated 42,000 BTC
• Qatar accumulated 28,000 BTC
• Abu Dhabi accumulated 31,000 BTC

Supply Dynamics

• Exchange balances now sit at 2.38 million BTC, the lowest level since January 2018.
• Long-term holder supply reached a new all-time high of 14.71 million BTC.
• ETF and sovereign buying is outpacing miner issuance at a ratio of twelve to one.

The supply shock is visible on-chain.

4. Stablecoins Have Become an Alternative Settlement Layer

October stablecoin settlement volume reached 1.53 trillion dollars, which exceeded Visa’s quarterly card throughput.

Stablecoin Balance Sheet Strength

• Tether holds 128 billion dollars in United States Treasuries.
• USDC has surpassed 58 billion dollars in circulation.
• PayPal PYUSD crossed 1 billion dollars in supply for the first time.

Visa settled 225 billion dollars this year using Solana and Ethereum rails.

Western Union USDPT Launch in 2026

This launch will onboard nearly 100 million remittance users into sub-second, sub-cent settlement.

Stablecoins are no longer an adoption story.

They represent a replacement of legacy payment infrastructure.

5. A Regulatory Moat Is Forming Around United States Institutions

GENIUS Act

The GENIUS Act is now law.

United States banks can:

• Issue stablecoins
• Custody digital assets
• Participate in on-chain staking and rehypothecation with standardized controls

Since July, twenty-three Digital Asset Trusts have been filed across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Avalanche.

Stablecoin Clarity Act

This bill remains stalled in the Senate, which is functionally bullish.

Institutions now have a six to twelve month window to accumulate before the formal regulatory green light arrives.

The United States is quietly building the moat.

6. Bitcoin Has Become a Geopolitical Asset

China publicly accused the United States of holding 127,000 BTC seized from the LuBian mining pool.

Beijing formally demanded repatriation.

This represents the strongest sovereign validation Bitcoin has ever received.

When superpowers dispute ownership of the coins, the asset has already transitioned from speculative instrument to strategic reserve.

7. The Cycle Extension Is Confirmed

We are nineteen months post-halving.

Historical analogs show:

• 2013 peaked approximately eighteen to twenty-four months after halving
• 2017 peaked approximately eighteen to thirty months after halving
• 2021’s distortion extended the peak by eleven months

COVID and the 2022 to 2023 bear market extended the entire four-year framework.

We are now entering the acceleration window.

The recent breakdowns represent resets, not endings.

Conclusion for Allocators

Sharp technical breakdowns transfer coins from:

• Over-leveraged retail market participants
• To sovereigns, pensions, ETFs, insurance allocators, and long-term disciplined capital

Every major structural tailwind is either already in progress or will accelerate before Q2 2026:

• Liquidity reflation
• Sovereign accumulation
• ETF demand
• Stablecoin payment migration
• Regulatory maturation
• Structural supply contraction

The bull market is not over.

It is entering its most asymmetric, dangerous, and profitable phase.

Position size like a professional.